Large industrialized countries are now in a recession. What are the prospects for economic recovery?
The three most important industrial economies in the world are, at the moment, facing enormous problems. Germany is struggling with the cost of reunification and is in recession. Japan is also experiencing recession and the United States has a large budget deficit.
Forecasters and analysts face questions about the prospects of an economic recovery. Here are some of their findings:
The election of a new president of the United States gave hope to the rest of the world. If the US recovered, the rest of the world would face a more promising future. However, analysts now accept that the US will only recover very slowly.
Consumer and investor confidence is still lacking. Large deficits and declining short-term interest rates mean that there is little scope for economic stimulus.
The Japanese economy, after years of trade and budget surpluses, is in deep recession and the growth rate has slowed down considerably. German economists have lowered their
forecasts for economic growth this year. The lowering of German rates may bring some relief to other members of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM). However, Germany’s importance as Europe’s largest export market may decline.
However, in some parts of the world, there are more positive signs, particularly in some Latin American countries and in South-East Asia. Analysts say that, as long as the rate of interest stays above the rate of growth in national income, then the ratio of debt to income will get worse. Falling interest rates help towards overcoming this problem. They believe it may take several years before there is real recovery. However, advances in technology are offering hope for the world economy.
12. The important industrial economies mentioned in the passage are _____.
A. Latin American countries and in South-East Asia
B. German, Japan and China
C. German, Japan and United States
D. Not mentioned
13. Find words or expressions in the above article which have the meaning of “The amount by which something is more than what is needed”?
A. deficit B. surpluses C. decline D. recession
14. According to the passage, which one is NOT true?
A. Consumer and investor still hold confidence in the US economy.
B. There is little scope for provoking the economy.
C. US is predicted to be recovering very slowly.
D. The US recovery would give the rest of the world a more promising future.
15. It could be implied that the rising of the interest rate _____.
A. can help towards overcoming this problem about the ratio of debt to income
B. may lead Germany’s importance as Europe’s largest export market to decline
C. may bring some relief to other members of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism
D. None of above
16. The tone of the passage suggests that the author is _____ about the world economy.
A. doubtful B. indifferent C. positive D. pessimistic
12.【答案】C。解析：細節題。根據關鍵詞important industrial economies定位到文章第二段。文章提到世界上最重要的三大工業國目前面臨著經濟問題，接下來分別講到德國、日本和美國的經濟情況。故本題答案選C。
13.【答案】B。解析：詞義猜測題。根據詞義“the amount by which something is more than what is needed”可知其字面意思是：某物的數量超過了需要的數量，也就是“剩余，盈余”。四個選項中只有surpluses符合，故本題答案選B。其他選項的意思是：A. deficit赤字，虧損;C. decline下降;D. recession衰退，不景氣。
14.【答案】A。解析：細節題。由第五段第二句話Large deficits and declining... little scope for economic stimulus. 可知B項正確。根據第四段最后一句話However, analysts now accept that the US will only recover very slowly. 可知C項正確。由第四段第二句話If the US recovered, the rest of the world would face a more promising future. 可知D項正確。根據第五段的第一句話Consumer and investor confidence is still lacking. 可知消費者和投資者對美國的經濟仍缺乏信心，所以A選項與文章意思相悖，故選A。
15.【答案】D。解析：推斷題。題干問：由增長的利率可以推斷出什么。根據最后一段中的...as long as the rate of interest stays above the rate of growth... Falling interest rates help towards overcoming this problem. 可以排除A選項;根據第六段的最后三句話German economists have lowered their forecasts for economic growth this year. The lowering of German rates may bring some relief to other members of ... (ERM). However, German...largest export market may decline. 可知經濟增長率的下降引發了這一結果，不是利率增長，所以可排除B、C選項。故選D。
16.【答案】C。解析：態度題。通讀全文可知，文章前面部分講到德國、日本、美國三大工業國的經濟衰退，其經濟復蘇緩慢;但是作者用了However一次，把視角轉向了拉丁美洲和東南亞的經濟情況，這些地區的經濟發展勢頭良好。最后作者又說到advances in technology are offering hope for the world economy. 由此可知，作者對世界經濟的態度是積極的。故選C。